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Opening packs is one of the biggest thrills in FC Ultimate Team. You never really know what you are going to get, and that mystery is a big part of why so many players keep coming back. It is a little like buying a lottery ticket or แทงหวย, where luck plays a huge role in the outcome.
But behind the excitement, a question always remains. How much does EA Sports actually tell us about our chances of packing the best players?
Let us have a closer look at how transparent Ultimate Team really is when it comes to pack odds and probability.
How EA Displays Pack Odds
For a few years now, EA has shown some basic information about pack odds. When you open the store and check a pack, you can usually see something like “5.5% chance of getting a 90+ rated player.” This was introduced after several countries asked for more transparency in games that use loot box systems.
However, what many players do not realize is that these percentages are based on individual items, not the full pack. Just because you open a 100k pack with a few dozen items inside does not mean your overall chances of pulling a special card are much higher. It only means that each slot has that small chance separately.
Even more confusing is the way EA handles rare players. If the chance to pull a TOTS player is extremely low, the game will simply display “Less than 1%.” It does not tell you if it is 0.9%, 0.1%, or even lower. For the most desirable cards, you are mostly left guessing.
What Pack Weight Actually Means
In the community, players often talk about “pack weight.” This refers to how easy or hard it is to pull good players from packs. When a promo like Team of the Season is running, people expect better cards to show up more often. However, the pack odds do not make it clear how likely you are to pull a special player compared to a regular high-rated gold card.
For example, you might see a 5% chance of getting a 90+ rated player during a TOTS promo. What the odds do not show is that 95% of those pulls might be regular gold cards like Neuer or Kane, not the special blue cards everyone is chasing. This is why players sometimes feel disappointed even after hitting a “good” rated card.
Hidden Layers and Player Suspicion
Over the years, players have developed a lot of theories about pack luck. Some believe you get better pulls if you open packs right after new content drops. Others think that certain players are set at even lower odds inside the general categories.
While EA has never confirmed these ideas, it is clear that the company does not break down the odds beyond simple labels like “90+” or “TOTS player.” There is no official information about the chances of pulling a specific player, such as a 97-rated Jude Bellingham during TOTS. Without that level of detail, it is easy to understand why players sometimes feel suspicious.
Past Controversies and Regulatory Pressure
The lack of full transparency has not gone unnoticed. In Belgium, loot boxes were banned after being considered a form of gambling. This forced EA to make changes and even remove FIFA Points from the Belgian market.
Other countries, like the United Kingdom, have also looked into loot boxes but have not introduced strict rules yet. As a result, EA continues to operate under a system where they technically show odds but avoid giving deeper details that would make things much clearer.
How Players Try to Measure Real Odds
Since official information is limited, players have taken matters into their own hands. Some websites and community projects track thousands of pack openings to estimate real pull rates. These fan-led experiments often show just how rare top players actually are.
FC 24 Project TOTY Pack Tracker!
Press "MAKE A COPY" to get your own version!
Better late than never. Should have the majority of packs on there. Have focused mainly on the +Rating packs!
Let me know if I missed anything.https://t.co/FPXHSdXMh2 pic.twitter.com/eKw9LWyv52
— JoshXLs (@JoshXLs_) January 3, 2024
For example, during FC 24’s Team of the Year event, some trackers estimated that the chance of packing a TOTY card was closer to 0.05% than the “less than 1%” label shown in-game. While these numbers are not official, they paint a very different picture from what players might expect when buying packs.
Pack Luck Will Always Be Part of the Game
At the end of the day, EA Sports does provide some information about pack probabilities. But when it comes to the rarest and most valuable players, the odds are kept vague and unclear. Players are left relying on guesses, community experiments, and a bit of hope every time they open a pack.
Luck will always be part of the Ultimate Team experience. Still, a little more honesty about what we are really getting into would go a long way in making the game feel fairer for everyone.
